Email & SMS

Capture game plan

What every capture surface produces today, what the 20,000 a month SMS target requires, and what closes the distance. Measured from Klaviyo signup events and on-site sessions on 2026-10-08. Estimates are labelled and carry their basis.

1 · The target and the distance to it

SMS captured, last 30 days

8,480

+33% on the prior 30

Target

20,000

a month

The gap

+11,520

2.36× current, 384 more a day

Email captured, last 30 days

18,634

for scale; no target set

The target is 2.36 times current SMS capture. It is 283 opt-ins a day now and needs 667. Email runs at 18,634 a month, so SMS is capturing 46% of what email does on the same traffic.

2 · What produces today

Surface	Last 30 days	Share	To reach 20,000 on this alone
Pop-up and on-site forms	7,361	86.8%	2.7×
Shopify customer record	741	8.7%	27.0×
API and import	343	4.0%	58.3×
Text-to-join keyword	35	0.4%	571.4×
All surfaces	8,480	100%	2.36×

One surface carries 87% of SMS capture. That is a concentration risk as much as a performance one: the ten weeks the pop-up was misconfigured cost roughly 6,000 opt-ins, and nothing else moved to cover it.

SMS capture by form, 2026 to date

Form	ID	Opt-ins	Share	Type
Email + SMS sign-up form	STUCB3	9,708	72.1%	POPUP, email + phone
not in the live-form list	TXMVmy	2,307	17.1%	—
not in the live-form list	XNjDHv	792	5.9%	—
Countdown Sale - Black Seed Oil	Vqpsb7	268	2.0%	POPUP, phone only
Countdown Sale - NAD+ BOGO	TYjzAx	176	1.3%	POPUP, phone only
NAD+ Early Access	VCfHT8	137	1.0%	EMBED, phone only
Sleepy COCOA META lead-gen	VMcxPc	65	0.5%	POPUP, phone only
not in the live-form list	X9ksL5	8	0.1%	—
not in the live-form list	RASehe	1	0.0%	—

5 of the 10 live forms produced no SMS opt-ins at all in 2026. Cocoa Relaunch Meta SMS lead-gen, Meta Sleepy lead-gen, LEAD GEN, NMN Out Of Stock, BE NOTIFIED WHEN IT'S BACK!. A form that collects nothing still costs page weight and still competes for the same visitor.

Email capture by form, 2026 to date

Form	ID	Opt-ins	Share	Type
Email + SMS sign-up form	STUCB3	24,525	100.0%	POPUP, email + phone
Countdown Sale - Black Seed Oil	Vqpsb7	1	0.0%	POPUP, phone only

8 of the 10 live forms produced no Email opt-ins at all in 2026. Countdown Sale - NAD+ BOGO, Sleepy COCOA META lead-gen, Cocoa Relaunch Meta SMS lead-gen, Meta Sleepy lead-gen, NAD+ Early Access, LEAD GEN. A form that collects nothing still costs page weight and still competes for the same visitor.

Where email capture happens, by device

Device comes from the user agent on the signup event. It is present on form submissions only, so this covers 17,064 of 186,912 email signups (9%). SMS signup events carry no user agent at all, so the same split cannot be produced for SMS.

Device	Opt-ins	Share
Mobile	12,863	75.4%
Desktop	3,962	23.2%
Tablet	239	1.4%

75% of form capture is mobile. Any pop-up or form change should be judged on mobile first; a desktop-led review optimises the minority case.

3 · What the target asks for, against real traffic

Site sessions come from Shopify, 220,199 in 2026-09. A note on why that matters: the figure commonly used for this calculation is Klaviyo's Active on Site, about 1,177 a day. That counts identified visitors, not traffic, and using it as the denominator overstates every capture rate roughly six times.

Sessions

220,199

2026-09, 7,340 a day

SMS capture rate

4.08%

of sessions, 8,982 opt-ins

Email capture rate

8.89%

of sessions, 19,571 opt-ins

Rate the target needs

9.08%

of sessions, 2.23× today

20,000 phone numbers a month is 9.08% of sessions, against 8.89% for email. The target asks for more phone numbers than the site currently captures email addresses — a 102% attach rate on the same form traffic. That is the single fact the plan has to be built around.

Month	Sessions	SMS	SMS %	Email	Email %	Attach
2026-01	255,664	4,783	1.87%	23,990	9.38%	20%
2026-02	254,420	3,831	1.51%	19,550	7.68%	20%
2026-03	240,980	3,984	1.65%	21,490	8.92%	19%
2026-04	221,901	3,731	1.68%	28,681	12.93%	13%
2026-05	252,016	4,442	1.76%	20,915	8.30%	21%
2026-06	224,744	3,012	1.34%	15,081	6.71%	20%
2026-07	204,042	3,348	1.64%	16,257	7.97%	21%
2026-08	212,412	4,999	2.35%	17,411	8.20%	29%
2026-09	220,199	8,982	4.08%	19,571	8.89%	46%

The real win this year was attach, not traffic. The share of email signups that also give a phone went from about 20% through the first half of the year to 46% in 2026-09, which is what the two-step pop-up fix bought. Email capture has held steady around 8.9% of sessions throughout, and traffic has moved -1% over six months.

4 · Where the gap actually is

Attach, read per surface rather than blended

Attach is the share of people who give an email who also give a phone. Blended across all sources it looks like 46%, which hides the only number that matters.

Surface	Emails	Phones	Attach	Read
Pop-up and on-site form	8,216	7,361	89.6%	Almost everyone who gives an email here gives a phone. There is nothing left to win.
Shopify checkout	10,417	741	7.1%	Collects 10,417 email addresses a month and asks almost none of them for a phone.
Blended	19,571	8,982	46%	the figure that hides the gap

The pop-up is not the problem. The checkout is. It already captures 10,417 email addresses a month — more than the pop-up does — and converts 7.1% of them to SMS. The pop-up converts 89.6%. That one gap is worth more than every other lever on this page combined.

What the checkout used to do. Through 2026-04 to 2026-06, when Postscript wrote consent back into the Shopify customer record, SMS consent ran at 15.4% of new customers against 7.0% today. On the 10,417 checkout emails that is an attach of about 6%. Postscript is the only precedent BFS has here, so 6% is the defensible target and anything above it is a stretch.

Where it is heading on its own

Week	Opt-ins a day	Monthly run rate
2026-08-18 to 2026-08-24	237	7,097
2026-08-25 to 2026-08-31	246	7,371
2026-09-01 to 2026-09-07	327	9,823
2026-09-08 to 2026-09-14	299	8,983
2026-09-15 to 2026-09-21	321	9,617
2026-09-22 to 2026-09-28	247	7,414
2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05	269	8,061

The recovery took it from 237 a day to about 293. Since then the trend is -17 a day per week. Flat inside week-to-week noise of 247 to 327. There is no trend to extrapolate: at the current rate 20,000 never arrives, and roughly 8,780 a month is the baseline until a lever moves.

What it takes to reach 20,000

Each scenario holds the pop-up's 90% attach and adds 1,300 from text-to-join and a post-purchase opt-in. The two variables are checkout attach and how much of site traffic the pop-up converts.

Scenario	Pop-up, % of sessions	Checkout attach	SMS a month	Against target
Today	3.73%	7%	8,102	-11,898
Checkout restored to the Postscript rate	3.73%	6%	9,333	-10,667
Plus pop-up to 5.0% of sessions	5.00%	6%	11,836	-8,164
Plus pop-up to 6.5% of sessions	6.50%	6%	14,795	-5,205
Stretch: checkout 35%, pop-up 6.5%	6.50%	35%	17,769	-2,231
Target: checkout 35%, pop-up 7.2%	7.20%	35%	19,150	-850

20,000 is reachable on-site, but only if both levers move a long way. With the checkout at 35% attach — above the 6% Postscript managed — the pop-up still has to convert 7.6% of sessions against 3.73% today, roughly double. Neither number is impossible and neither is comfortable. Restoring the checkout alone gets about a third of the way; the rest is pop-up reach.

5 · The plan

Ranked by measured certainty first, then by size. 20,000 is an on-site target, so everything here is on-site; nothing assumes more traffic or paid acquisition.

#	Initiative	When	Owner	Expected	Basis
1	Put an SMS opt-in on the Shopify checkout The single biggest lever on the page. The checkout already collects more email addresses than the pop-up does and asks almost none of them for a phone.	Week 1	Email & SMS + dev	+-69 at the Postscript rate, +2,905 at 35%	measured: 7.1% attach today against 90% on the pop-up, and 6% when Postscript ran it
2	Raise how much traffic the pop-up actually reaches Display rules, teaser, exit intent and frequency caps decide this, not the form design. Measure impressions per session first; nobody has that number today.	Week 2-4	Email & SMS	needs 7.6% of sessions against 3.73% today	measured: attach is already 90%, so every further opt-in has to come from reach, not from the form
3	Fix the five forms that collect nothing Two are back-in-stock embeds and two are Meta lead-gen. Built, live, producing nothing, so this is a repair rather than a build.	Week 1	Email & SMS	unknown until they work	measured: 5 of 10 live forms, zero opt-ins in 2026
4	Identify the two unlisted forms producing real volume Together 21% of form-sourced SMS comes from forms that are not in the form inventory. Nothing should be optimised around the pop-up until these are understood.	Week 1	Email & SMS	measurement, not lift	measured: TXMVmy 1,862 and XNjDHv 792 SMS opt-ins in 2026
5	Stand up text-to-join and promote it A standard US DTC surface running at effectively zero. Pack inserts, order confirmations, site footer.	Week 2	Email & SMS	assumption: +466	34 a month today
6	Add a post-purchase SMS opt-in Highest-intent moment in the funnel and currently unused for SMS.	Week 2-3	Email & SMS + dev	assumption: +800	does not exist
7	Put a session denominator on every surface Opt-ins per 1,000 sessions is the only way to compare surfaces. Without it a busy page beats a good form.	Week 1	Email & SMS	measurement, not lift	not currently measured per form

Items 1 and 2 are the plan; the rest are housekeeping worth doing anyway. Restoring the checkout gets roughly a third of the distance and has a precedent to aim at. The remaining two thirds is pop-up reach, and the first thing that needs measuring there is how many sessions the pop-up is shown to at all — without it, item 2 has no baseline and no way to tell a display problem from a form problem.

Item 7 is the one to settle first. Everything above it is worth doing on its own merits and improves capture whatever the target is. But if 20,000 is held as an on-site number, the arithmetic says it will not be met, and the team will spend a quarter missing it. Better to agree now whether it is a capture target or an acquisition target.

Device on SMS. SMS signup events carry no user agent, so the mobile and desktop split cannot be produced for SMS at all. Email form signups do carry it and are shown above.

Capture by offer. The signup event records the form and the list, not the incentive that was on screen. Comparing a 10%-off pop-up against a free-shipping one needs either a separate form per offer or a custom property added to the form.

TikTok and Amazon. Neither is a Klaviyo capture surface, so neither appears in any of this. If either collects contact details today, that data lives somewhere else and needs its own pull before it can be planned against.

Sessions per form. Site sessions are measured in total, not per surface, so opt-ins per 1,000 sessions can only be computed for the pop-up. That is why item 6 is on the plan.

The frozen session file. The conversion rate above is measured on 14 days to 1 September, the last date the session data covers. It needs a fresh pull before it is quoted again.